Division II and III Playoff Scenarios

First of all, to answer a question Hoss Cartwright, eight teams make the playoffs in each division in Vermont high school football. Since there are only seven teams in Division III, everyone gets in. Teams must qualify in D1 and D2.

With that in mind, here are the Division II  and Division III playoff scenarios entering the final week as I see them. Please keep in mind these are unofficial. But I'm pretty confident in my numbers.

Division II

• Burr and Burton (6-1): Has clinched the top seed.
  
  
• Fair Haven (6-1): Will be the second or third seed.
  • Locks up the #2 spot with a victory over Mt. Abraham.
  • Falls to third with a loss if Milton wins.
    
    
• Milton (6-1): Also locked into either the second or third position.
  • Can only claim the second seed with a win and a Fair Haven loss.
  • Is third in any other situation that I can see. Best case for the Jackets if both they and FHU win leaves the Slaters 1 point ahead.
    
    
• Bellows Falls (5-2): Will finish somewhere between fourth and seven.
  • Claims 4^th win a win over U-32 unless Lyndon beats St. Johnsbury.
  • With a win, the Terriers can still finish 4^th even if LI wins assuming Otter Valley beats NCU and at least two of Brattleboro, Springfield and Missisquoi also prevail.
  • Definitely falls behind U-32 with a loss and would almost certainly also be passed by Lyndon and Mt. Anthony if either of them pulls an upset.
    
    
• Lyndon (4-3): Pretty much in the same boat as Bellows Falls, with a potential range of position from 4 to 7.
  • Almost certainly finishes 4^th if it can shock St. J in The Game.
  • The Vikings will finish behind Bellows Falls unless they win so LI's best case in a loss is 5^th.
  • An LI loss opens the door for U-32 and Mt. Anthony to move up if they win.
    
    
• U-32 (4-3): Ditto. Will place between 4^th and 7^th.
  • Will finish 4^th with a win unless Lyndon also wins.
  • Would likely slip to sixth even with a victory if Lyndon and Mt. Anthony both win.
  • Best case scenario in a loss is a tie for 5^th with LI if Otter Valley wins and Fairfax loses in other games. This tie could also be for 6^th if Mt. Anthony wins.
  • Will finish ahead of Mt. Anthony unless MAU wins. 
    
    
• Mt. Anthony (3-4): Has clinched a playoff berth but can be no higher than the 5^th seed.
  • Earns the 7^th seed unless it defeats Burr and Burton.
  • With a win, definitely passes U-32 and LI if those schools lose.
  • Also passes BF with a win if the Terriers lose unless at least 4 of Otter Valley, Spaulding, Mt. Abraham, Brattleboro and Springfield also win.
  • Can only move ahead of a victorious U-32 if Lyndon also wins, which would leave LI 4^th, MAU 5^th and U-32 6^th.
    
    
• North Country (2-5): The Falcons can't move up, but the 8^th seed is theirs barring a major upset.
  • NCU is definitely in unless either Mt. Abraham beats Fair Haven or Spaulding beats Milton.
  • If the Falcons beat winless Otter Valley they eliminate Mt. Abraham from playoff contention.
    
    
• Mt. Abraham (1-6): A playoff spot is possible but the Eagles need help.
  • To have any chance MAU must stun Fair Haven. They also need Otter Valley to beat NCU and for either Spaulding to lose or for Fairfax to top Missisquoi.
    
    
• Spaulding (1-5): Despite being 10^th in the current standings the Tide almost control their own destiny for a postseason berth.
  • SHS' chances ride on beating Milton, so it's not going to be easy. If they do win, however, the Tide are helped by the fact they played one fewer game and the QPR is decided by points per game rather than total points.
  • While Spaulding can't catch North Country in total points if both teams win, SHS would move fractionally ahead on QPR excluding other results. In that case the Tide will be in unless Mt. Abraham (which NCU beat) wins and Missisquoi (which SHS beat) loses.
  • Spaulding definitely makes the playoffs with a win if North Country and Mt. Abraham lose.
    
    
• Otter Valley (0-7): Has been eliminated from playoff contention.

Division III

With only three games remaining, the D-III situation is pretty simple.

• The winner of the Woodstock (6-1) at Windsor (6-0) matchup Saturday earns the top seed and a first-round bye while the runner up will be second.
• Mill River (5-2) has a bye in Week 8 and is locked into third place.
• Since it beat both the teams immediately behind it, BFA-Fairfax (2-4) will be the #4 regardless of its result against Missisquoi.
• The winner of Saturday's game between Poultney/MSJ (1-5) and Springfield (1-5) gets the fifth seed.
• Missisquoi (0-7) would pass the loser of the loser of the P/MSJ vs Springfield game with a win. Otherwise it will be the seventh seed.