The Division I high school playoff picture

I've run the numbers and here are the playoff scenarios for Vermont Division I high school football as best as I can tell. Please note these are based on unofficial numbers and a lack certainty about the tiebreaker system.

• St. Johnsbury: Has clinched the top seed, even if it loses to Lyndon.
  
  
• Hartford: Can be no worse than the third seed. Could be #2 with a loss if Burlington also loses.
  
  
• Burlington: Will be home for the quarterfinals as the 2, 3 or 4 seed.
  • If Burlington and Hartford both win Friday, HHS will hold a 1 point lead in the standings barring other results. BHS would need the number of wins for CVU, SBHS and BBA to be greater than the number of wins for BFA and Middlebury to finish 2^nd.
    
    
• BFA-St. Albans: Best case is third. Worst case is fifth.
  • Would pass Burlington with a win and a BHS loss assuming Colchester beats Bratt.
  • Could finish no worse than fourth win a win.
  • Places fourth with a loss if CVU beats Middlebury.
    
    
• Middlebury: Will finish somewhere between fourth and sixth.
  • Passes BFA for 4^th with a win, a BFA loss and wins for either Burlington or Essex.
  • A tie with BFA for fourth is possible if Midd wins, BFA loses and Rutland and Hartford also win. After the confusion last year, I'm not going to speculate on this tiebreaker.
  • Mt. Mansfield is the only team that can pass Middlebury in the current standings, even if the Tigers lose to CVU.
    
    
• Mt. Mansfield: Has clinched a playoff berth and could finish as high as fifth.
  • Would take fifth place with a win and a Middlebury loss if two of Hartford, Brattleboro and North Country win in Week 8.
  • Will finish no worse than sixth with a win.
  • A loss opens the door to slip as far as eighth.
    
    
• CVU: Could end up as high sixth or miss the playoffs.
  • Clinches at least the seventh seed with a win over Middlebury.
  • Makes the postseason with a loss unless at least two of Colchester, Rice and South Burlington score victories.
  • Since CVU beat Rutland, an RHS win over Burlington gives CVU two extra points and makes it more difficult for others to pass the Redhawks. CVU almost certainly finishes eighth with a loss in this scenario unless Rice beats BFA.
    
    
• Rutland: Like CVU, the Raiders can finish as high as sixth. But the head-to-head loss means Rutland has much less room for error.
  • If the Raiders beat Burlington, they clinch a playoff berth. They would also pass CVU and/or MMU if those teams lose.
  • Rutland could still make it with a loss, but only if Colchester, Rice and South Burlington all lose.
    
    
• Colchester: The Lakers need to win and get all kinds of help to make the playoffs. But with the schedule in their favor, the seventh seed is entirely possible.
  • The best case scenario for CHS is a win over Brattleboro and loses for CVU, Rutland, Rice, Essex and Mt. Anthony. That would leave the Lakers and the Redhawks tied with 42 points and Colchester would presumably get the seventh seed thanks to its head-to-head win.
  • That tiebreaker could also give the Lakers eighth over CVU if Rice or South Burlington pull an upset.
  • Colchester could finish eighth behind a winning CVU if all the other teams still in the hunt fall.
  • A Rutland win eliminates Colchester.
    
    
• Rice: It would take the biggest surprise of the season to date. But get that upset and Green Knights have an excellent chance of getting in.
  • A win at BFA would be worth a whopping 20 points to Rice, enough to assure it finishes ahead of Colchester and South Burlington. That means losses for either Rutland or CVU would put the Green Knights in the playoffs.
  • RMHS climbs to seventh with a win if both Rutland and CVU fall.
    
    
• South Burlington: A win over MMU gives the Wolves a chance at a playoff spot, though they will need considerable help.
  • The most probable postseason shot is for SBHS to win and have Rutland, Colchester and Rice lose, likely leaving SB eighth behind CVU.
  • A victorious SBHS could pass CVU and finish seventh if the Redhawks lose and Mt. Anthony shocks Burr and Burton.
  • Again a Rutland win eliminates SBHS because of the two extra points it gives to CVU.
    
    
• Essex and Brattleboro have been eliminated from playoff contention.
  
  I will try to follow up with Division II and III playoff scenarios either tomorrow or Monday.