Vermont HS football Division I QPRs and Unofficial Playoff Scenarios

There's a week to go in the Division I season, and there's a lot still to be decided. First of all, here are the current QPR standings:

(Includes all games vs. in-state opponents. Games vs. out-of-state teams, including losses for Rutland and Hartford, are ignored)
1T. Rutland (6-1* overall, 6-0 D1), 92 points, 15.33 QPR
1T. Hartford (6-1* overall, 6-0 D1), 92 points, 15.33 QPR
3. Middlebury (7-0 overall, 7-0 D1), 100 points, 14.29 QPR
4. CVU (4-3 overall, 4-3 D1), 54 points, 7.71 QPR
5. Mt. Anthony (3-4 overall, 3-4 D1), 44 points, 6.29 QPR
6. Brattleboro (3-4 overall, 3-4 D1), 42 points, 6 QPR
7. Colchester (3-4 overall, 3-4 D1), 40 points, 5.71 QPR
8. St. Johnsbury (3-4 overall, 3-4 D1), 36 points, 5.14 QPR
9. Essex (2-5 overall, 2-5 D1), 34 points, 4.86 QPR
10. BFA-St. Albans (3-4 overall, 2-4 D1), 33 points, 4.71 QPR
11. Rice (1-6 overall, 1-5 D1), 16 points, 2.29 QPR
12. South Burlington (0-7 overall, 0-7 D1), 0 points, 0 QPR

Based on these numbers, we know the winner of next week's game between Rutland and Hartford will decide the top seed. Also, with Rice having a bye in Week 8, we know that Rice will finish 11th and South Burlington will finish 12th.

Everything else is still on the line, though, so I went through all the scenarios to produce all the possible outcomes. Here they are:

An Unofficial Summary

* Rutland, 1st with a win; 2nd or 3rd with a loss.
* Hartford, 1st with a win; 2nd or 3rd with a loss.
* Middlebury, 2nd with a win; 3rd with a loss.
* CVU, 4th win a win; 5th or 6th with a loss
* Mt. Anthony, 4th or 5th with a win; 7th or 8th with a loss (worst case tie for 8th with Essex)
* Brattleboro, 4th or 5th with a win; 7th, 8th or 9th with a loss (can miss playoffs with loss if Essex and SJ win)
* Colchester, almost certainly 5th or 6th with a win (best case tie for fourth); needs lots of help to get in with a loss.
* BFA, either 6th with a win or 10th with a loss.
* St. Johnsbury, will get in with a win unless CVU, Essex and Brattleboro all win; would get in with a loss if Essex and BFA both lose.
* Essex, needs to win and get help.

All the Unofficial Playoff Scenarios

The leading codes here are the outcome of each of the five meaningful games left.
 

BFA vs. Colchester (1 BFA wins, 2 Col wins)

Brattleboro vs. Mt. Anthony (3 Brat wins, 4 MA wins)

CVU vs. Middlebury (5 CVU wins, 6 Midd wins)

Essex vs. South Burlington (7 Essex wins, 8 SB wins)

St. Johnsbury vs. Lyndon (9 SJ wins, 10 LI wins)

H/R represent Hartford and Rutland, with the team winning their game in the higher spot and the loser in the lower spot

13579 – 1. H/R, 2. H/R, 3. Mid; 4. CV; 5. Brat, 6. BFA, 7. MA; 8. E; 9. SJ; 10. Col.

13570 – 1. H/R, 2. H/R, 3. Mid; 4. CV; 5. Brat, 6. BFA, 7. MA, 8. E; 9. Col; 10. SJ.

13589 – 1. H/R, 2. H/R; 3. Mid; 4. CV; 5. Brat; 6. BFA, 7. SJ, 8. MA, 9. Col., 10. E.

13580 – 1. H/R, 2. H/R, 3. Mid, 4. CV, 5. Brat, 6. BFA, 7. MA, 8. Col, 9. SJ, 10 E.

13680 – 1. H/R, 2. Mid, 3. H/R, 4. Brat, 5. CV, 6. BFA, 7, MA; 8. Col., 9. SJ, 10. E

13689 – 1. H/R, 2. Mid; 3. H/R, 4. Brat, 5. CV, 6. BFA, 7. SJ, 8. MA, 9. Col, 10. E.

13679 – 1. H/R, 2. Mid, 3. H/R, 4. Brat, 5. CV, 6. BFA, 7. SJ, 8*. MA (HtH), 9 E, 10. Col.

13670 – 1. H/R, 2. Mid, 3. H/R, 4. Brat, 5. CV, 6. BFA, 7*. MA (HtH), 8. E, 9. Col, 10. SJ

14579 – 1. H/R; 2. H/R; 3. Mid; 4. CV; 5. MA; 6. BFA; 7. SJ, 8. E; 9. Brat; 10. Col

14570 – 1. H/R; 2. H/R; 3. Mid; 4. CV; 5. MA; 6. BFA; 7. E; 8. Col; 9. Brat; 10 SJ.

14580 – 1. H/R; 2. H/R; 3. Mid; 4. CV; 5. MA; 6. BFA; 7*. Brat (HtH), 8. Col; 9. SJ; 10. E.

14589 – 1. H/R; 2. H/R; 3. Mid; 4. CV; 5. MA; 6. BFA; 7. SJ; 8. Brat; 9. Col; 10. E.

14689 – 1. H/R; 2. Mid; 3. H/R; 4. MA; 5. CV; 6. BFA; 7. SJ; 8. Brat; 9. Col; 10. E.

14680 – 1. H/R; 2. Mid; 3. H/R; 4. MA; 5. CV; 6. BFA; 7*. Brat (HtH); 8. Col; 9. SJ; 10. E.

14670 – 1. H/R; 2. Mid; 3. H/R; 4. MA; 5. CV; 6. BFA; 7*. Col (HtH); 8. E; 9 Brat; 10. SJ.

14679 – 1. H/R; 2. Mid; 3. H/R; 4. MA; 5. CV; 6. BFA; 7. SJ; 8*. (3way) Brat, Col, E. (I think Col here)

23579 – 1. H/R; 2. H/R; 3. Mid; 4. CV; 5. Brat; 6. Col; 7*. MA (HtH); 8. E; 9. SJ; 10. BFA.

23570 – 1. H/R; 2. H/R; 3. Mid; 4. CV; 5. Brat; 6. Col; 7*. MA (HtH); 8. E; 9. SJ; 10. BFA.

23580 – 1. H/R; 2. H/R; 3. Mid; 4. CV; 5. Brat; 6. Col; 7. MA; 8*. E (LQ); 9. SJ; 10. BFA

23589 – 1. H/R; 2. H/R; 3. Mid; 4. CV; 5. Brat; 6. Col; 7. SJ; 8. MA; 9. E; 10. BFA.

23689 – 1. H/R; 2. Mid; 3. H/R; 4. Brat; 5. CV; 6. Col; 7. SJ; 8. MA; 9. E; 10. BFA.

23680 – 1. H/R; 2. Mid; 3. H/R; 4. Brat; 5*. CV (HtH); 6. Col; 7. MA; 8. SJ; 9. E. 10. BFA.

23670 – 1. H/R; 2. Mid; 3. H/R; 4. Brat; 5. Col; 6. CV; 7*. MA (HtH): 8. E; 9. SJ; 10. BFA.

23679 – 1. H/R; 2. Mid; 3. H/R; 4. Brat; 5*. CV (HtH); 6. Col; 7. SJ; 8*. MA (HtH); 9. E; 10. BFA.

24679 – 1. H/R; 2. Mid; 3. H/R; 4. MA; 5. Col; 6. CV; 7. SJ; 8. Brat; 9. E; 10. BFA.

24670 – 1. H/R; 2. Mid; 3. H/R; 4. MA; 5. Col; 6. CV; 7*. E; 8. Brat; 9. SJ; 10. BFA.

24680 – 1. H/R; 2. Mid; 3. H/R; 4*. MA (LQ); 5. Col; 6. CV; 7. Brat; 8. SJ; 9. E; 10. BFA.

24689 – 1. H/R; 2. Mid; 3. H/R; 4* (3way) MA (LQ); 5. CV (HtH); 6. Col; 7. Brat; 8 SJ; 9. E; 10. BFA

24589 – 1. H/R; 2. H/R; 3. Mid; 4. CV; 5. MA; 6. Col; 7. Brat; 8. SJ; 9. E; 10. BFA.

24580 – 1. H/R; 2. H/R; 3. Mid; 4. CV; 5. MA; 6. Col; 7. Brat; 8. SJ; 9. E; 10. BFA.

24570 – 1. H/R; 2. H/R; 3. Mid; 4. CV; 5. MA; 6. Col; 7. E; 8. Brat; 9. SJ; 10. BFA.

24579 – 1. H/R; 2. H/R; 3. Mid; 4. CV; 5. MA; 6. Col; 7. SJ; 8*. E (HtH); 9. Brat; 10. BFA.

Positions marked with an * are ties. (LQ) -- League QPR tiebreaker; HtH -- Head-to-head tiebreaker.

What I'm not entirely sure of is the tie-breaker procedure. I think League QPR is the first tiebreaker followed by head-to-head results. That's how I've done these rankings, but these should be taken as very unofficial.