Sunday, October 16, 2016

Division I playoff scenarios entering Week 8

I've gone through the playoff scenarios in Division I Vermont high school football based on my QPR Standings. Here's how things could shape up for each team after Week 8, assuming my numbers are correct. Please remember, these numbers are unofficial, though I like to think I know what I'm doing.



Hartford (6-0 in Vermont, vs. Rutland)
  • Earns the #1 seed with a win or a CVU loss;
  • Can be no lower than #2.

CVU (6-1, at Middlebury)
  • Gets the #1 seed with a win and a Hartford loss;
  • Can be no lower than the #2 seed with a win;
  • Would get the #2 seed with a loss if St. Johnsbury loses or if Mt. Anthony defeats Brattleboro;
  • Can be no lower than #3.

St. Johnsbury (5-2, vs. Lyndon)
  • Best case is #2 with a win, a CVU loss, and a Brattleboro win;
  • Cannot be lower than #3 with a win;
  • Would likely also finish third with a loss, although 4th is possible.

Essex (5-2, at South Burlington)
  • Best case scenario is 3rd if: Essex wins, SJA loses, and Hartford, Midd and Mt. Anthony all win;
  • Will be no worse than 4th with a win;
  • Can be no lower than the 5th seed (can tie for 5th with Midd but would win tiebreaker on head-to-head);
  • Would get the fourth seed with a loss and a Rutland loss (again, a tie with Midd is possible but would go to Essex on head-to-head).

Rutland (4-2 in Vermont, at Hartford)
  • Would finish 4th with a win and an Essex loss.
  • Would finish 5th with a win if Essex also wins.
  • Could finish anywhere from 5th to 7th with a loss.
  • A tie with Rice is possible for 5th or 6th, and if I'm reading the tiebreakers right, that would go to Rutland on the fourth criteria, win percentage.

Middlebury (4-3, vs. CVU)
  • Best case scenario is a tie with Essex for 4th if Middlebury wins, Essex and Rutland lose, and Mt. Anthony beats Brattleboro, but Essex would still take the 4th seed on head-to-head;
  • Thus the Tigers finish 5th or 6th with a win, depending on whether Rutland wins or loses;
  • Is locked into 7th with a loss.

Rice (3-4, no game in Week 8)
  • Can finish no lower than its current 7th place;
  • Would finish no lower than 6th if Middlebury loses;
  • Could claim 5th only if: Hartford, St. Johnsbury, CVU, Essex, Colchester and Mt. Anthony all win in Week 8;
  • Could finish 6th ahead of Rutland if Middlebury wins, Rutland loses and no more than one of South Burlington, Brattleboro, BFA-St. Albans or Lyndon wins.

Colchester (3-4, vs. BFA)
  • 8th place with a win over BFA;
  • Out with a loss.

BFA-St. Albans (2-5, at Colchester)
  • 8th place with a win over Colchester;
  • Out with a loss.

Brattleboro (2-5, vs. Mt. Anthony), Mt. Anthony (0-7, at Brattleboro) and South Burlington (0-7, vs. Essex) have been eliminated.
  • Brattleboro's best case is a win and wins for BFA and Middlebury. But that still leaves the Colonels 2 points behind BFA for the last spot.

2 comments:

  1. What are your thoughts on Division II?

    ReplyDelete
  2. http://tinyurl.com/jyatdjw
    It's funny; I was working on those as you commented.

    ReplyDelete