Falcons still have a shot in Division II playoff scenarios

Since I did the other divisions, I've got through the Division II Vermont high school football scenarios as I see them. And first of all, I owe an apology to the North Country Falcons.

I've been saying the playoff race is essentially over for a couple of weeks now, but after NCU's thrilling win over Mt. Mansfield on Saturday, the Falcons are still very much alive. If North Country wins its last two games and Burlington loses its last two, the teams would both finish 4-4 and NCU would make the playoffs as long as Mt. Abraham doesn't win its last two to make it a three-way tie.

That said this analysis is much more unofficial than my other two as I'm just not sure in what order tiebreakers will be applied. This is the procedure as it's listed in the VIFL's weekly releases:

Tie Breaking Procedures:
Overall QPR is the first tie-breaker
If two or more teams are still tied
Head to Head Results
Best Record vs. Common Opponents
Best Win/Loss %
Coin Flip

The implication here is that Overall QPR is the tiebreaker, even ahead of head-to-head. That said, these criteria make no mention of Divisional QPR, which is the first criteria used to seed teams in Division II, so I'm more than a little dubious about this. I tried emailing the VIFL's Sean Farrell for clarification but I have yet to receive a response.

For now I've marked potential QPR ties with an asterisk. All are multi-way, circle-of-death ties, and I've tentatively used overall QPR to break them, although that is largely supposition at this point.

Anyway, here are the scenarios as I see them:

 

Burr and Burton (7-0, 7-0 D2)

Week 8: At BFU

Week 9: Bye

• Has clinched a playoff berth;
• Clinches #1 seed with win over Bellows Falls;
• Would finish in a three-way tie for first with a loss to BF, if Fair Haven wins both its remaining games. If overall QPR is the tiebreaker as listed in the VIFL wee,kly releases*, BBA would win this tiebreaker.
• Would be the #2 seed with a loss to BF otherwise.

Bellows Falls (7-0, 6-0 D2)

Week 8: vs. BBA

Week 9: at FHU

• Has clinched a playoff berth;
• Is the #1 seed with two wins;
• Would finish in a three-way tie for first with a win over BBA and a loss to FHU, assuming FHU also beats Burlington. BBA would win that tiebreaker, however*, and FHU currently has the edge for second though it could still go either way;
• Clinches at least the second seed with a win over FHU;
• Could finish in a three-way tie for second with two losses if Burlington also wins its last two games. Burlington would win the tiebreaker* and second would depend on the results of Poultney/MSJ (helps Fair Haven) and Springfield (helps BFU);
• Would be the third seed with two losses if FHU wins its last two.

Fair Haven (6-1, 5-1 D2)

Week 8: At BHS

Week 9: vs. BFU

• Has clinched a playoff berth;
• Best case is a three-way tie for first with two wins and a BFU win over BBA. FHU could be second or third in this tiebreaker*;
• Would finish as the 2^nd seed with two wins if BBA wins in Week 8;
• Clinches at worst the 3^rd seed with a win over BHS;
• Would be the 4^th seed with two losses.

Burlington (5-2, 4-2 D2)

Week 8: vs. FHU

Week 9: at NCU

• Has NOT clinched a playoff berth;
• Guarantees a playoff berth with one win;
• Only chance for home field in the semifinals is two wins and two losses for BFU. That would produce a three-way tie for second, and Burlington would presumably win this tiebreaker*;
• Would be the third seed with if FHU loses its last two.
• Would miss the playoffs with two losses and two NCU wins if Mt. Abraham loses one if its last two games;
• Would finish in a three-way tie for fourth with two losses and two wins each for North Country and Mt. Abraham. Burlington has the edge here if overall QPR is the tiebreaker*.

North Country (3-4, 2-4 D2)

Week 8: at Milton

Week 9: vs. BHS

• Has not been eliminated from playoff contention;
• Would be eliminated with one more loss;
• Would earns the fourth seed with two wins and two Burlington losses, assuming Mt. Abraham loses one of its last two games;
• Would finish in a three-way tie for fourth with two wins, two Burlington loses and two Mt. Abraham wins; Burlington presumably has the edge in this tiebreaker*.

Mt. Abraham (2-5, 2-4 D2)

Week 8: vs. MMU

Week 9: at Milton

• The only conceivable hope of making the playoffs is in a three-way tie for fourth with two wins, two NCU wins and two BHS losses. However, I don't see how MAU would advance in that tie as it lost its non-division game while BHS and NCU won theirs;
• Would tie for fourth with two wins, two BHS losses and a NCU loss to Milton. However, Burlington would presumably win that tiebreaker on overall QPR or head-to-head;
• Is definitely eliminated with a loss.

Mt. Mansfield (2-5, 1-5 D2)

Week 8: at MAU

Week 9: vs. Lyndon

• Has been eliminated from playoff contention.

Milton (2-5, 1-5 D2)

Week 8: vs. NCU

Week 9: vs. MAU

• Has been eliminated from playoff contention.

Lyndon (0-7, 0-7 D2)

Week 8: at St. Johnsbury

Week 9: at MMU

• Has been eliminated from playoff contention.